Executive Summary

Q3 2025 delivered modest top-line growth with net revenue of $99.6M (+8.0% YoY; +4.4% cc) and a sequential gross margin rebound to 34.5% from 31.3% in Q2, powered by 63% YoY growth in Automation; reported net loss widened to $10.4M and AEBITDA improved 8% YoY to $21.4M .
Versus S&P Global consensus, PACK was essentially in line on revenue (~$99.6M vs $99.9M estimate), but missed on EPS (-$0.061 vs -$0.03) and EBITDA ($13.2M vs $18.3M) on S&P definitions; company-reported AEBITDA was $21.4M with 21.5% margin (non-GAAP) . Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
Guidance: management affirmed landing at the low end of prior 2H 2025 revenue ($216–$230M) and AEBITDA ($44.5–$54.5M) ranges, cited weakness in Europe/APAC; year-end cash outlook trimmed to $65–$70M from ~$70–$75M in Q2 .
Strategic catalysts: Walmart partnership with 22.5M warrants (strike $6.8308) tied to up to $300M ex-paper spend over 10 years (implies $()$700M total including paper) and a multi-year Medline automation rollout; both reinforce Automation scale and PPS pull-through .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Automation acceleration: Q3 Automation revenue rose 63.0% YoY to $11.9M; management reiterated 2025 Automation revenue of ~$40–$45M and called out North America ramp (Walmart Autofill) and broader adoption in EMEA .
Sequential margin recovery: Gross margin expanded to 34.5% in Q3 from 31.3% in Q2, reflecting cost actions, pricing, and mix optimization; AEBITDA margin improved to 21.5% from 17.9% in Q2 .
Strategic wins underpin demand: Walmart warrant-linked partnership (up to 22.5M warrants, $6.8308 strike; ~$700M implied total spend) and Medline enterprise agreement support multi-year Automation and PPS growth. CEO: “This is a transformative deal...solidifies Ranpak as a leading provider of warehouse automation” .

What Went Wrong

Profitability still constrained: Net loss widened to $10.4M (vs $8.1M LY) despite AEBITDA growth; gross profit was flat YoY ($34.4M vs $34.4M) and GAAP EBITDA fell YoY to $11.9M (from $12.6M) .
Europe/APAC softness: EMEA/APAC PPS volumes declined 2.5% YoY; consolidated volumes dipped ~30 bps YoY; management flagged choppy demand and destocking in APAC .
Non-cash warrant headwind: $0.8M reduction to revenue from the Amazon warrant program lowered reported gross margin by ~0.5 pts and EBITDA margin by ~0.6 pts in the quarter, obscuring underlying improvement .

Financial Results

Consolidated performance (chronologically: Q3’24 → Q2’25 → Q3’25)

Metric	Q3 2024	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Net Revenue ($M)	$92.2	$92.3	$99.6
Gross Margin (%)	37.3%	31.3%	34.5%
Net Income (Loss) ($M)	$(8.1)	$(7.5)	$(10.4)
Diluted EPS ($)	$(0.10)	$(0.09)	$(0.12)
EBITDA ($M, GAAP)	$12.6	$15.6	$11.9
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	$19.8	$16.5	$21.4
AEBITDA Margin (%)	21.5%	17.9%	21.5%

Product-line mix (Q3’24 vs Q3’25)

Product Line	Q3 2024 ($M)	Q3 2025 ($M)	YoY Change
Cushioning	$35.7	$35.8	+0.3%
Void-Fill	$41.4	$43.4	+4.8%
Wrapping	$7.8	$8.5	+9.0%
Automation	$7.3	$11.9	+63.0%
Total Net Revenue	$92.2	$99.6	+8.0%

KPIs and balance sheet

KPI	Prior	Current	Notes
Installed Base – Cushioning (k)	34.9 (9/30/24)	34.4 (9/30/25)	-1.4% YoY
Installed Base – Void-Fill (k)	85.8	88.2	+2.8% YoY
Installed Base – Wrapping (k)	22.9	23.0	+0.4% YoY
Total PPS Systems (k)	143.6	145.6	+1.4% YoY
Cash & Equivalents ($M)	—	$49.9 (9/30/25)	No revolver borrowings
First Lien Term Debt ($M)	—	$406.9 (9/30/25)	Maturity Dec-2031

Non-GAAP and warrant impacts: Q3 included a $0.8M non-cash revenue reduction (Amazon warrant); reported gross margin was reduced by ~0.5 pts and EBITDA margin by ~0.6 pts due to warrants . AEBITDA adjustments included M&A/restructuring/severance ($5.1M), stock-based comp ($2.1M), cloud-related amortization ($1.1M) among others .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current View	Change
Net Revenue	2H 2025	$216–$230M (at ~€/$1.15)	Low end of range	Maintained (low end)
Adjusted EBITDA	2H 2025	$44.5–$54.5M (incl. ~$4M warrant impact)	Low end of range	Maintained (low end)
Automation Revenue	FY 2025	~$40–$45M	~$40–$45M reiterated	Maintained
Year-End Cash	FY 2025	~$70–$75M (Q2 call)	~$65–$70M (Q3 call)	Lowered

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q1 & Q2)	Current Period (Q3)	Trend
Automation scale, partnerships	50%+ growth target; robust backlog; enterprise wins; evaluating tariff impacts; highlighted Pickle stake and integrations	Walmart warrant-linked deal; Medline multi-year deployment; NA ramp on Autofill; on track $40–$45M 2025; >50% growth outlook sustained	Improving
Supply chain/input costs	NA kraft tightness early-year; pricing actions and freight/warehouse optimization; energy easing in Europe	Sequential margin rebound; ongoing logistics/freight and footprint optimization; paper pricing stable into Q4	Improving
Tariffs/macro	Tariff uncertainty weighing on EU/EMEA; distribution caution	EMEA/APAC choppy; expect low end of 2H guide due to inconsistency	Mixed
Regional trends	NA strong (enterprise-led); EMEA/APAC weaker with destocking; signs of EU stabilization in July	NA volumes +3.7%; EMEA/APAC volumes -2.5%; consolidated -0.3 pts YoY	Mixed
Product performance	PPS volume growth (Q1/Q2); softness in EU cushioning; new cushioning product to take share from foam	Wrapping up mid-single digits; Guardian cushioning launch momentum; NA void-fill strong	Improving mix
AI/technology	Highlighted AI partners and automation pipeline; Pickle stake	Partnerships with “cutting-edge AI players such as Pickle and R Squared” in adoption narrative	Building
Capital allocation/deleverage	Target delever to ~2.5x; working capital normalization; swaps to reduce interest	Reported net leverage 4.4x LTM; bank 3.8x; 2025 FCF outlook constructive for 2026; YE cash cut	Stable to improving 2026

Management Commentary

Walmart partnership: “Walmart has received 22.5 million warrants at a strike price of $6.8308...vest in stages to the extent they spend $300 million (excluding the cost of paper)...we estimate...implies up to roughly $700 million in total spend over the life of the contract” .
Automation flywheel: “We have marquee automation deals in North America with our two key workhorse products...The Walmart deal in particular highlights how powerful having the best-in-class automation solutions can be in driving growth opportunities in Protective” .
Margin trajectory: “Gross margins...34.5% compared to 31.3% in Q2...input cost environment remains similar...we expect paper pricing for the fourth quarter to be in line with Q3” .
Long-term targets: “Grow to $800 million in revenue organically within the next five years...automation...at least 15%...we want...north of 25% EBITDA margin” .
2H outlook: “Expecting to come in at the low end of the second half revenue guide...and the lower end of the second half adjusted EBITDA guide” .

Q&A Highlights

Guidance cadence and geography: Management reiterated confidence in Automation and NA PPS, but expects EMEA/APAC variability to push 2H to the low end of ranges .
Margin levers: Pricing, freight/logistics consolidation, warehouse footprint optimization, and SG&A control are continuing; more gains expected in Q4 as initiatives fully take hold .
Walmart ramp: Modest Q3 benefit, more in Q4, with material acceleration expected in 2026 and beyond as next-gen facilities come online .
Automation profitability: Still slight drag in Q3; approximately breakeven by Q4 as scale improves .
Cash and capex: YE cash now $65–$70M; 2026 indicative capex ~$35M; targeting $15–$20M FCF in 2026 on current view .

Estimates Context

Metric	S&P Global Consensus	Actual (S&P)	Surprise
Revenue ($)	$99,938,330*	$99,600,000*	-0.3%*
EPS (Primary) ($)	-0.03*	-0.0608*	-0.0308 (Miss)*
EBITDA ($)	$18,302,000*	$13,200,000*	-$5,102,000 (Miss)*

Company-reported AEBITDA was $21.4M (non-GAAP) with a 21.5% margin in Q3; GAAP EBITDA per company reconciliation was $11.9M .
Number of estimates: EPS (1), Revenue (3) per S&P Global data*.
Values retrieved from S&P Global*.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Automation is the primary growth engine (63% YoY in Q3) and is increasingly de-risked by multi-year enterprise agreements (Walmart, Medline), with PPS pull-through from Autofill placements; expect mix to skew more NA and enterprise over time .
Sequential margin recovery is tangible (34.5% vs 31.3% in Q2) and should continue as cost actions mature; warrant accounting will continue to create optical headwinds to reported margins near term .
2H guidance at the low end reflects EMEA/APAC volatility; NA remains robust. Near-term trading likely hinges on evidence of year-end margin sustainment and Q4 Automation deliveries .
Consensus framing: Slight top-line in-line result, but EBITDA and EPS misses on S&P definitions; models should reconcile company non-GAAP AEBITDA vs S&P EBITDA, and incorporate warrant revenue reductions . Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
2026 setup: YE 2025 cash trimmed to $65–$70M; management targets ~$15–$20M FCF in 2026 with ~$35M capex, underpinning the delever plan toward ~2.5x over time .
Long-term thesis: Management’s five-year targets ($800M revenue, ≥15% Automation mix, >25% EBITDA margin) imply material operating leverage if Automation scale and PPS innovation (e.g., Guardian cushioning, FillPak Mini) deliver as planned .
Stock narrative catalyst: Execution milestones on Walmart/Medline ramps, continued gross margin expansion, and visibility to Automation breakeven/profitability by Q4/Q1 could be the next re-rating drivers .

Additional Context and Press Releases (Q3 2025)

Conference call scheduling and access details (Oct 30) .
Product innovation: launch of FillPak Mini, a compact void-fill converter for space-constrained stations (EU/APAC now; NA in 2026) .
Trade show integration: full end-to-end solutions demo (PPS + Automation) at IMHX 2025 (UK) .

Notes:

Non-GAAP measures: See company’s reconciliations; AEBITDA adds back items including stock comp, FX, cloud implementation, restructuring and other unusual costs .
Warrant accounting: Non-cash reductions recognized as revenue offsets that flow through gross profit and EBITDA; Q3 impact was $0.8M .

Ranpak Holdings Corp. (PACK)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary